The August Portuguese Monthly is now available here.
This month’s special article is The Portuguese Population: Smaller and Ageing, in which we discuss Portuguese demographics. The Portuguese population is projected to have a smaller and much older population in 2060 if current trends are maintained, due largely to a precipitous fall in fertility in recent decades. We survey the underlying causes of this decline in fertility, highlighting cultural shifts in the second half of the twentieth century as well as effects from the increased participation in the labour force by women. Then we look at some of the potential economic consequences, in particular on GDP, and overview possible public policy, comparing current Portuguese policy with that of other European countries.
Highlights of Recent Developments
- Portuguese GDP was up 0.6%qoq (0.8%yoy) in Q2 after a down of 0.6%qoq (1.3%yoy) in Q1. This result was better than expected.
- The flash estimate for the PMI indicator this month brought more optimistic results than the Q2 flat growth in Europe, though it was below July’s numbers.
- Unemployment in Portugal in Q2 fell markedly to 13.9% of the labour force. This result may be explained not only by the rise of the employment and the labour force, but also because Easter was in Q2 this year, usually a period when employment goes up.
- The CPI for July fell 0.9%yoy in Portugal. The Euro zone inflation also remains very low: annual inflation was 0.4% in July.
- August was marked by the crisis in the Espírito Santo Group. We analyse the main developments of this month.