Week ahead (23-28 February)

WEEK IN REVIEW

Data this week continued to support a global recovery scenario in early 2014, though at a slower pace. In the euro area, the composite PMI edged down to 52.9 in February but remained well above the zero-growth threshold of 50. In the US, industrial production was down 0.3%mom in January but the data is bound to have been affected by the very inclement weather in January and its likely to have rebounded in February. On the political front, the replacement of Italy´s PM Letta for Renzi by the President appears to have had no impact on market expectations.

In the Portuguese speaking world, the EU Commission and IMF reports on the 10th review of the programme conclude that there are important risks ahead for Portugal in the future. See here and here. Unemployment in Brazil edged up t 4.8% in January, as rising employment in the public sector was more than offset by other sectors shedding labour. In Angola, the statistics office reported that average annual growth between 2003 and 2010 was 8.9%, below Government’s estimates of  12.1%.

WEEK AHEAD

During the week: US releases several confidence indicators that are likely to stabilise in February.

25 February:

  • EU Commission’s new EU forecasts are published, including projections for 2015. A small upward revision to growth is likely given the positive surprise in Q4 GDP.

27 February

  • EU Commission February Confidence Indicators: Latest ESI (Economic sentiment indicator) was 100.9, close to its long term average. Markets expect a further small rise to just above 101.

28 February

  • EU February harmonised inflation: Markets expect inflation at 0.7%yoy in February, which may not be enough, in the context of the incipient recovery in the euro are, to trigger further action by the ECB, that meets the following week.
  • EU December unemployment rate: Markets expect it to stagnate at 12%