Portuguese GDP was up 0.2%qoq in Q3, after +1.1%qoq in Q2. The demand details are not available yet, but according to the Statistics Office INE, the main contributor to this rise was private consumption. Net exports, on the other hand, had a negative contribution to GDP due to the rise in imports.
Today’s data suggests that the economy has left the worst of the recession behind, which is further confirmed by data on industrial production, employment and trade in goods throughout the quarter. However, Macrometria anticipates that the recovery will be very moderate in the coming quarters, partly due to the need to pursue austerity measures in late 2013 and through 2014 and to a weak European economic environment. At the same time we expect the financial sector and households continue to strengthen their balance sheets, which should add further pressure on demand. The table below shows our new forecasts that have been tweaked relative to September to take into account today’s data.
In the euro area, GDP growth eased from 0.3%qoq to 0.1%qoq, thanks to positive contributions from Germany, up 0.3%qoq, and Spain, up 0.1%qoq and strong gains in small countries such as Romania and Estonia. GDP was down 0.1%qoq both in France and in Italy.