GDP growth was revised down to -0.4%qoq and -4.0%yoy in the first quarter of 2013, after -3.8% in the previous quarter. According to the Portuguese Statistics Office, the revision is due to the incorporation of additional information on international trade.
The details show that domestic demand had a sharper than-expected negative contribution (-6.4 percentage points yoy after -4.6 percentage points in the 4th quarter of 2012). The positive contribution of net external demand increased, reaching 2.3 pp (0.8 pp in the 4th quarter of 2012), due to a sharper decline in imports of goods and services.
Today’s data is disappointing as it suggests that the signs of stabilization given by high frequency data (Industrial production, international trade,..) failed to materialise a the beginning of the year.
Should the economy stagnate from now until the end of the year, annual growth would be -2.4%, which highlights the frailty of the Government’s current forecast of -2.3%